Estudiantes 4-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 28 Jul 2024

Estudiantes
4-1 HT 0-0
Gimnasia La Plata
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Estudiantes vs Gimnasia La Plata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.06
No
63%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.04
6+ Goals
8%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.8
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
13%
4.16
X/2
8%
7.38
X/X
15%
3.82
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
10%
6.26
2/X
9%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.3pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.2pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-1.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.0pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estudiantes v Gimnasia La Plata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estudiantes EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -17%
1.32/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.33
-12% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
305 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
21.9 Crosses 17.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Estudiantes vs Gimnasia La Plata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estudiantes
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.60 xG 1.37
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
243 Passes 191
68% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
26.02.2024 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-0 HT 0-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
01.10.2023 Estudiantes Estudiantes 0-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
19.03.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 2-1 HT 0-1 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
05.06.2022 Estudiantes Estudiantes 1-1 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
20.03.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 HT 0-1 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
05.12.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 4-4 HT 3-2 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ

Estudiantes 4-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estudiantes
4-1
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.58 xG 1.64
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
270 Passes 288
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 28
26 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estudiantes vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estudiantes swept aside Gimnasia La Plata 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Estudiantes as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estudiantes had 49% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 51%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.58 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimnasia La Plata led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Estudiantes and 1.33 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Estudiantes vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Estudiantes 4-1 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estudiantes vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estudiantes win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Estudiantes 47%, draw 31%, Gimnasia La Plata 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estudiantes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estudiantes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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