FC Kuressaare 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
46%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.97
Over 2.5
57%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
6%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
31%
-1.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
46%
Away Win
44%
+2.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 48%
+11% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.77/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.70
+40% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Kuressaare
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
47% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-2 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
17.03.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 HT 0-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
11.11.2023 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
17.09.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
03.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
19.03.2023 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-2 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Kuressaare
1-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Kuressaare and Parnu JK Vaprus shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Parnu JK Vaprus at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, FC Kuressaare had 42% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 58%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Kuressaare and 1.83 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

FC Kuressaare 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split FC Kuressaare 29%, draw 24%, Parnu JK Vaprus 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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