ABD (K) 4-1 Almanya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 28 Jul 2024

ABD (K)
4-1 HT 3-1
Almanya (K)
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Olympics – 2024

ABD (K) vs Almanya (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.32
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
8%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 26% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
3.58
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
20%
5.42
X/2
12%
5.75
X/X
9%
4.52
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
23%
3.88
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.4pp
41%
Away Win
35%
+6.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ABD (K) v Almanya (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ABD (K) EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Almanya (K) EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

ABD (K) vs Almanya (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ABD (K)
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Almanya (K)
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.94 xG 1.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
290 Passes 347
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.11.2022 ABD (K) ABD (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) HAZ
11.11.2022 ABD (K) ABD (K) 1-2 HT 0-0 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) HAZ
02.03.2018 ABD (K) ABD (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) SHEBEL
02.03.2017 ABD (K) ABD (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) SHEBEL
01.07.2015 ABD (K) ABD (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) KDK

ABD (K) 4-1 Almanya (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ABD (K)
4-1
AWAY Almanya (K)
1.26 xG 1.08
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 1
413 Passes 305
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ABD (K) vs Almanya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ABD (K) ran out comfortable winners over Almanya (K) 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 41% — and on the day ABD (K) made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, ABD (K) had 56% of the ball to Almanya (K)'s 44%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.26 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, ABD (K) had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for ABD (K) and 0.60 for Almanya (K).

What was the final score of ABD (K) vs Almanya (K)?

ABD (K) 4-1 Almanya (K) in the Olympics on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ABD (K) vs Almanya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almanya (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split ABD (K) 36%, draw 24%, Almanya (K) 41%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Almanya (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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