Brezilya (K) 1-2 Japonya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.6
Over 2.5
35%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.9
No
62%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.57
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.59
6+ Goals
6%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 35% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.0
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.51
X/2
13%
5.51
X/X
14%
3.76
2/1
3%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.99
2/X
3%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
40%
Away Win
34%
+5.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.5pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.9pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brezilya (K) EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Japonya (K) EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brezilya (K)
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Japonya (K)
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.99 xG 1.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
362 Passes 322
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.04.2024 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) 1-1 HT 1-0 Brezilya (K) Brezilya (K) SHEBEL
03.12.2023 Brezilya (K) Brezilya (K) 0-2 HT 0-2 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) HAZ
30.11.2023 Brezilya (K) Brezilya (K) 4-3 HT 1-1 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) HAZ
17.02.2023 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Brezilya (K) Brezilya (K) SHEBEL
02.03.2019 Brezilya (K) Brezilya (K) 1-3 HT 0-1 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) SHEBEL
29.07.2018 Japonya (K) Japonya (K) 1-2 HT 0-0 Brezilya (K) Brezilya (K) Dünya - Uluslar Turnuvası
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brezilya (K)
1-2
AWAY Japonya (K)
0.34 xG 2.19
64% Ball Possession 36%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
410 Passes 194
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
15 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brezilya (K) vs Japonya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Japonya (K) squeezed past Brezilya (K) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Japonya (K) made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brezilya (K) had 64% of the ball to Japonya (K)'s 36%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.34 to 2.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Japonya (K)'s control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya (K) had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brezilya (K) and 1.67 for Japonya (K).

What was the final score of Brezilya (K) vs Japonya (K)?

Brezilya (K) 1-2 Japonya (K) in the Olympics on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brezilya (K) vs Japonya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Japonya (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Brezilya (K) 32%, draw 28%, Japonya (K) 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Japonya (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Japonya (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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