Korona Kielce 0-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Jul 2024

Korona Kielce
0-1 HT 0-0
Legia Varşova
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
37%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.99
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.45
X/1
16%
7.51
X/2
13%
4.29
X/X
10%
4.17
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.72
2/X
6%
13.8
Value flag · 1/X at 14.45 — our 11% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
25%
+11.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
37%
Away Win
47%
-9.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Korona Kielce v Legia Varşova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 51%
+9% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.46/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.08
+24% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +30%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
21.9 Crosses 19.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.39 xG 1.34
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
265 Passes 334
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 3-3 HT 1-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
06.12.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
20.08.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
29.01.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-2 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
16.07.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
19.08.2012 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 4-0 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL

Korona Kielce 0-1 Legia Varşova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
0-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.51 xG 1.24
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
274 Passes 358
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova squeezed past Korona Kielce 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Legia Varşova found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 45% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 55%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 0.51 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Korona Kielce and 2.17 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova?

Korona Kielce 0-1 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 36%, draw 27%, Legia Varşova 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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