Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.18
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 27% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.26
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
8%
6.55
X/2
12%
5.15
X/X
12%
5.12
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
21%
3.04
2/X
8%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.31/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.04
-18% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
261 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
21.7 Crosses 20.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 1.34
42% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
260 Passes 390
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
03.09.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.03.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.08.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
13.02.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
15.08.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
2-2
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.10 xG 2.21
27% Ball Possession 73%
7 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
218 Passes 691
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
18 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 39
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 27% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 73%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 1.10 to 2.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.00 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?

Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 33%, draw 28%, Pogon Szczecin 39%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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