Lexington 2-1 Richmond Kickers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Richmond Kickers EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.39/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.27
-4% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
16.2 Crosses 18.9
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lexington
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Richmond Kickers
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.71 xG 1.59
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
268 Passes 288
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.08.2023 Lexington Lexington 1-0 HT 0-0 Richmond Kickers Richmond Kickers USL1
30.07.2023 Lexington Lexington 2-2 HT 1-2 Richmond Kickers Richmond Kickers USL1
21.05.2023 Richmond Kickers Richmond Kickers 2-1 HT 0-0 Lexington Lexington USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
2-1
AWAY Richmond Kickers
1.55 xG 1.49
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
293 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lexington vs Richmond Kickers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lexington squeezed past Richmond Kickers 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Lexington made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lexington had 48% of the ball to Richmond Kickers's 52%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.55 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lexington and 1.33 for Richmond Kickers.

What was the final score of Lexington vs Richmond Kickers?

Lexington 2-1 Richmond Kickers in the USA - USL League 1 on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs Richmond Kickers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Richmond Kickers win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lexington 35%, draw 25%, Richmond Kickers 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Richmond Kickers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Richmond Kickers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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