Ural 3-2 Chernomorets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 28 Jul 2025

📅28/07/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.56
Over
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2-3
36%
4-5
19%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
23%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
53%
-9.2pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.7pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.5pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ural The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Chernomorets The Market 22%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.97/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.23
+35% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ural
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Chernomorets
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.03.2025 Ural Ural 2-1 HT 2-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
27.07.2024 Chernomorets Chernomorets 3-2 HT 3-1 Ural Ural RUS1
25.09.2019 Chernomorets Chernomorets 0-2 HT 0-0 Ural Ural RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ural
3-2
AWAY Chernomorets
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ural vs Chernomorets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ural edged past Chernomorets 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ural as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ural had 62% of the ball to Chernomorets's 38%, shots finished 19-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ural had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ural and 1.33 for Chernomorets.

What was the final score of Ural vs Chernomorets?

Ural 3-2 Chernomorets in the Russia - FNL on 28/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ural vs Chernomorets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ural win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ural 44%, draw 33%, Chernomorets 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ural) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ural) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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