Hearts 0-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 28 Jul 2026

📅28/07/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
22%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.45
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
7.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
13%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
51%
+3.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
22%
Away Win
25%
-3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 29%
-60% / -60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -39% / -39%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.69
-43% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
345 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.6
Crosses 16.3
Yellow Cards 4.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.68 xG 2.28
19 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 4
352 Passes 145
36 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.07.2026 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
0-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.68 xG 2.47
15 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 2
379 Passes 183
28 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz beat Hearts 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Hearts carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 0.68 to 2.47.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Sturm Graz?

Hearts 0-2 Sturm Graz in the Champions League on 28/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Hearts 55%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 22%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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