Brusque 1-0 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Aug 2024

📅28/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
71%
1.48
Over 2.5
29%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.09
No
65%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
44%
2.23
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
13%
5.54
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.23 — our 44% vs market 38.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
21%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.7pp
33%
Draw
30%
+3.0pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-3.7pp
71%
Under 2.5
64%
+6.7pp
29%
Over 2.5
36%
-6.7pp
35%
BTTS Yes
44%
-8.4pp
65%
BTTS No
56%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brusque EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +6%
0.95/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.85
-37% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.8 Crosses 19.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brusque
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Sport Recife
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.67 xG 1.55
45% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
217 Passes 362
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.05.2024 Sport Recife Sport Recife 4-1 HT 1-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
05.10.2022 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
26.06.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
13.02.2020 Brusque Brusque 2-1 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brusque
1-0
AWAY Sport Recife
0.93 xG 1.68
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
162 Passes 499
68% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brusque vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brusque nicked a narrow win over Sport Recife 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 33% / 34% — and on the day Brusque made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (71%), no to both teams scoring (65%) came in.

On the day, Brusque had 29% of the ball to Sport Recife's 71%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.93 to 1.68 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sport Recife.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sport Recife led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Brusque and 1.50 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Brusque vs Sport Recife?

Brusque 1-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brusque vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Brusque 32%, draw 33%, Sport Recife 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sport Recife) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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