Sport Recife 4-1 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.77
6+ Goals
9%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.1pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.0pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+4.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.7pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 15%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -10%
1.36/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.60
+39% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -72% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
375 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
22.1 Crosses 17.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Brusque
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.04 xG 0.64
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
300 Passes 238
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2022 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
26.06.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
13.02.2020 Brusque Brusque 2-1 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
4-1
AWAY Brusque
2.58 xG 0.74
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 10
485 Passes 174
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife swept aside Brusque 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sport Recife as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 68% of the ball to Brusque's 32%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 2.58 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sport Recife and 0.67 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Brusque?

Sport Recife 4-1 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 56%, draw 28%, Brusque 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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