Operario PR 1-1 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 11 May 2024

Operario PR
1-1 HT 1-0
Ponte Preta
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Operario PR vs Ponte Preta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.51
Over 2.5
32%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.29
No
65%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
43%
2.23
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.56
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.23 — our 43% vs market 38.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-10.0pp
33%
Draw
27%
+5.4pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.5pp
68%
Under 2.5
62%
+5.7pp
32%
Over 2.5
38%
-5.7pp
35%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.8pp
65%
BTTS No
60%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Operario PR v Ponte Preta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Operario PR EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 22%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.37/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.25
+4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
24.4 Crosses 16.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Operario PR vs Ponte Preta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Operario PR
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 1.15
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
247 Passes 302
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.07.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-0 HT 2-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
16.04.2022 Operario PR Operario PR 2-0 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
23.09.2021 Operario PR Operario PR 1-2 HT 1-2 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
23.06.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-0 HT 0-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
15.12.2020 Operario PR Operario PR 1-0 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
20.09.2020 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 1-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2

Operario PR 1-1 Ponte Preta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Operario PR
1-1
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.46 xG 0.69
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
383 Passes 265
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Operario PR vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Operario PR and Ponte Preta shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Operario PR at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (68%) landed while no to both teams scoring (65%) missed.

On the day, Operario PR had 56% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 44%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 1.46 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Operario PR and 1.00 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Operario PR vs Ponte Preta?

Operario PR 1-1 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Operario PR vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Operario PR win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Operario PR 43%, draw 33%, Ponte Preta 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Operario PR), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Operario PR) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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