Novorizontino 0-3 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 11 May 2024

Novorizontino
0-3 HT 0-1
Ceara
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Novorizontino vs Ceara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.42
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 36% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.2pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Novorizontino v Ceara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.34/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.00
+10% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
24.2 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.5

Novorizontino vs Ceara Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Ceara
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.32 xG 0.47
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
185 Passes 376
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.09.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 4-1 HT 3-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
28.05.2023 Ceara Ceara 0-3 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2

Novorizontino 0-3 Ceara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
0-3
AWAY Ceara
1.34 xG 1.51
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
299 Passes 120
74% Pass Accuracy 55%
19 Box Touches 13
31 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara cruised past Novorizontino 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Novorizontino at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Novorizontino had 66% of the ball to Ceara's 34%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 1.34 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Novorizontino had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Novorizontino and 0.50 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Ceara?

Novorizontino 0-3 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 48%, draw 29%, Ceara 23%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Novorizontino), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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