CRB 2-0 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 11 May 2024

CRB
2-0 HT 2-0
Chapecoense
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

CRB vs Chapecoense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.6
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 35% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CRB v Chapecoense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CRB EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.17/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.38
+14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
19.4 Crosses 14.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1

CRB vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CRB
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.40 xG 1.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
354 Passes 317
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.11.2023 CRB CRB 3-2 HT 2-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
09.07.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-1 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
05.10.2022 CRB CRB 2-1 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
22.06.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-2 HT 1-1 CRB CRB BR2
13.12.2020 Chapecoense Chapecoense 3-2 HT 2-0 CRB CRB BR2
15.10.2020 CRB CRB 0-1 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2

CRB 2-0 Chapecoense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CRB
2-0
AWAY Chapecoense
2.59 xG 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
328 Passes 324
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CRB vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CRB saw off Chapecoense 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had CRB as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, CRB had 50% of the ball to Chapecoense's 50%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.59 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for CRB and 1.67 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of CRB vs Chapecoense?

CRB 2-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CRB vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a CRB win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split CRB 48%, draw 29%, Chapecoense 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CRB), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CRB) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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