28/09/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-2
Bedford Town vs AFC Sudbury Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
36%
4-5
25%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
6%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Under 2.5
BTTS Yes
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
43%
36%
Draw
25%
30%
Away Win
32%
52%
Under 2.5
40%
48%
Over 2.5
60%
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
47%
BTTS No
37%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bedford Town v AFC Sudbury — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Bedford Town
EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY
AFC Sudbury
EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-2% /
-2%
2.06/2.04
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.40/1.19
+26%
/
-36%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+4%
/
+33%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
13
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
293 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
324 · 84%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
3.0
Yellow Cards
1.9
POST-MATCH
Bedford Town vs AFC Sudbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Bedford Town saw off AFC Sudbury 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 36% / 30% — and on the day Bedford Town made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
What was the final score of Bedford Town vs AFC Sudbury?
Bedford Town 3-1 AFC Sudbury in the England - Non League Premier on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bedford Town vs AFC Sudbury?
Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Bedford Town 34%, draw 36%, AFC Sudbury 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Draw)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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İNGNLP
More England - Non League Premier
28 Sep 2024