Como (K) 1-1 Sampdoria (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
31%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
19%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.1pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.9pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+10.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Como (K) EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria (K) EU Bookmakers 23%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-39% / +143% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Como (K)
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Sampdoria (K)
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.39 xG 1.06
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
307 Passes 260
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.05.2024 Como (K) Como (K) 3-1 HT 1-0 Sampdoria (K) Sampdoria (K) İTKSA
23.03.2024 Sampdoria (K) Sampdoria (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Como (K) Como (K) İTKSA
14.01.2024 Como (K) Como (K) 0-1 HT 0-1 Sampdoria (K) Sampdoria (K) İTKSA
07.10.2023 Sampdoria (K) Sampdoria (K) 1-2 HT 0-2 Como (K) Como (K) İTKSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Como (K)
1-1
AWAY Sampdoria (K)
1.65 xG 1.02
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
293 Passes 169
71% Pass Accuracy 60%
21 Box Touches 6
33 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Como (K) vs Sampdoria (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como (K) and Sampdoria (K) couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Como (K) at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Como (K) had 59% of the ball to Sampdoria (K)'s 41%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 1.65 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Como (K) and 1.00 for Sampdoria (K).

What was the final score of Como (K) vs Sampdoria (K)?

Como (K) 1-1 Sampdoria (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Como (K) vs Sampdoria (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Como (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Como (K) 49%, draw 20%, Sampdoria (K) 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Como (K)) ✗ Over 2.5
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