Keflavik 0-1 Afturelding — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.33
Over Pick
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
34%
4-5
29%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.1pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keflavik EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Afturelding EU Bookmakers 46%
+54% / +54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
3.38/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.41
+120% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
319 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keflavik
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Afturelding
3.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.07.2024 Afturelding Afturelding 1-3 HT 0-2 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
21.05.2024 Keflavik Keflavik 3-0 HT 1-0 Afturelding Afturelding İZL1
02.03.2022 Keflavik Keflavik 5-0 HT 2-0 Afturelding Afturelding İZLK
22.08.2020 Afturelding Afturelding 2-2 HT 1-1 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
15.02.2014 Keflavik Keflavik 3-1 HT 2-1 Afturelding Afturelding İZLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keflavik
0-1
AWAY Afturelding
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Keflavik vs Afturelding
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Afturelding squeezed past Keflavik 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Afturelding as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Keflavik had 47% of the ball to Afturelding's 53%, shots finished 5-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Keflavik had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.20 goals for Keflavik and 0.80 for Afturelding.

What was the final score of Keflavik vs Afturelding?

Keflavik 0-1 Afturelding in the Iceland - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keflavik vs Afturelding?

Before kick-off our model rated an Afturelding win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Keflavik 33%, draw 26%, Afturelding 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Afturelding) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Afturelding) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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