Preussen Münster 1-2 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.38
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.49
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
5.81
X/2
9%
5.75
X/X
6%
5.57
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
19%
3.44
2/X
9%
12.75
Value flag · X/1 at 5.81 — our 18% vs market 13.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+5.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.6pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Preussen Münster EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -25%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -34%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
292 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Preussen Münster
1-2
AWAY Schalke 04
2.13 xG 1.39
39% Ball Possession 61%
20 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
230 Passes 417
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Preussen Münster vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 edged past Preussen Münster 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Preussen Münster at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Preussen Münster had 39% of the ball to Schalke 04's 61%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.13 to 1.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Preussen Münster.

What was the final score of Preussen Münster vs Schalke 04?

Preussen Münster 1-2 Schalke 04 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Preussen Münster vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated a Preussen Münster win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Preussen Münster 44%, draw 23%, Schalke 04 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Preussen Münster) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Preussen Münster) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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