Neftçi PFK 1-1 Sumqayıt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+5.5pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +9%
1.94/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.04
+16% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +52%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sumqayıt
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0 Corners 1
07.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
09.02.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 1-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERK
04.02.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-1 HT 2-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
31.01.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-3 HT 0-3 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
11.11.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-2 HT 1-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
02.09.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Sumqayıt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK and Sumqayıt shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi PFK at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.33 for Sumqayıt.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Sumqayıt?

Neftçi PFK 1-1 Sumqayıt in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Sumqayıt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 50%, draw 26%, Sumqayıt 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Neftçi PFK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
28 Sep 2024
16:00 Zira vs Kapaz Analysis →