Genk 2-1 Mechelen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.67
2-3 Goals
36%
2.15
4-5 Goals
26%
2.5
6+ Goals
14%
5.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.67
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.45
X/1
11%
3.92
X/2
7%
14.3
X/X
9%
8.0
2/1
8%
18.8
2/2
11%
9.39
2/X
8%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
65%
-15.1pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.0pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+10.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mechelen EU Bookmakers 19%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +25%
2.22/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/2.00
+10% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
396 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 73%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.5 Crosses 14.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Mechelen
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 1.39
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
356 Passes 361
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
22.10.2023 Genk Genk 4-0 HT 2-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
17.02.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 2-2 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
28.10.2022 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
21.05.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 0-0 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
29.04.2022 Genk Genk 4-2 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
2-1
AWAY Mechelen
1.80 xG 1.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
414 Passes 342
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Genk vs Mechelen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk nicked a narrow win over Mechelen 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Genk had 54% of the ball to Mechelen's 46%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.80 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Genk and 1.00 for Mechelen.

What was the final score of Genk vs Mechelen?

Genk 2-1 Mechelen in the Belgium - Pro League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Mechelen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Genk 50%, draw 24%, Mechelen 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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