Omiya Ardija 4-1 Sagamihara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagamihara EU Bookmakers 28%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.47/0.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.19
-5% / +146% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 21.4
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Sagamihara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.03.2024 Sagamihara Sagamihara 1-1 HT 0-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP3
25.09.2021 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP2
21.03.2021 Sagamihara Sagamihara 2-1 HT 0-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
4-1
AWAY Sagamihara
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
442 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
35 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs Sagamihara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Omiya Ardija cruised past Sagamihara 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Omiya Ardija as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 62% of the ball to Sagamihara's 38%, shots finished 23-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.00 for Sagamihara.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs Sagamihara?

Omiya Ardija 4-1 Sagamihara in the Japan - J3 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs Sagamihara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 42%, draw 27%, Sagamihara 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Omiya Ardija), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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