OFK Beograd 4-3 IMT Novi Beograd — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.6
Over 2.5
48%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
12%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.3pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME OFK Beograd EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY IMT Novi Beograd EU Bookmakers 23%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
0.42/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.16
-33% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 72%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
17.0 Crosses 23.4
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME OFK Beograd
4-3
AWAY IMT Novi Beograd
2.02 xG 2.45
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
336 Passes 269
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OFK Beograd squeezed past IMT Novi Beograd 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had OFK Beograd as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, OFK Beograd had 55% of the ball to IMT Novi Beograd's 45%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.02 to 2.45 — on chances, IMT Novi Beograd could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd?

OFK Beograd 4-3 IMT Novi Beograd in the Serbia - Super League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd?

Before kick-off our model rated a OFK Beograd win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split OFK Beograd 50%, draw 26%, IMT Novi Beograd 24%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (OFK Beograd) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (OFK Beograd) ✗ Under 2.5
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