Estrela U23 1-0 Benfica U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
44%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
26%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+4.2pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.7pp
44%
Away Win
55%
-10.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica U23 EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela U23
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Benfica U23
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-4 HT 0-2 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 PORU23
20.02.2024 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 2-2 HT 1-2 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela U23
1-0
AWAY Benfica U23
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estrela U23 vs Benfica U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela U23 edged past Benfica U23 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica U23 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Estrela U23 had 42% of the ball to Benfica U23's 58%, shots finished 6-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Benfica U23 led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estrela U23 and 3.00 for Benfica U23.

What was the final score of Estrela U23 vs Benfica U23?

Estrela U23 1-0 Benfica U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela U23 vs Benfica U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Estrela U23 26%, draw 30%, Benfica U23 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Benfica U23) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica U23) ✓ Under 2.5
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