Cerro Largo 3-1 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.4pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.27/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.18
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
265 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cerro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.07.2024 Cerro Cerro 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
24.03.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
30.11.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
02.07.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
29.04.2023 Cerro Cerro 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
25.03.2021 Cerro Cerro 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo beat Cerro 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Cerro Largo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cerro Largo and 0.33 for Cerro.

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs Cerro?

Cerro Largo 3-1 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Largo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 39%, draw 29%, Cerro 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Largo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Largo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
28 Sep 2024
17:00 Miramar Misiones vs Rampla Juniors Analysis →