Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

Deportivo La Guaira
1-1 HT 1-0
Estudiantes De Merida
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒02:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Venezuela - Premier League – 2024

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
19%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.4pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.2pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo La Guaira v Estudiantes De Merida — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.48/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.61
+0% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
300 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
18.4 Crosses 18.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.9

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.50 xG 1.23
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
345 Passes 232
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-2 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
02.09.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
04.03.2023 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-3 HT 1-2 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
19.10.2022 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
22.08.2022 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
02.04.2022 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN

Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 Estudiantes De Merida — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
1-1
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
0.83 xG 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
285 Passes 241
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes De Merida couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo La Guaira at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Deportivo La Guaira had 52% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 48%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.83 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estudiantes De Merida led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.67 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Guaira win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Guaira 44%, draw 32%, Estudiantes De Merida 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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