Elche 2-1 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Sep 2025

Elche
2-1 HT 1-1
Celta Vigo
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Elche vs Celta Vigo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.8
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.89
6+ Goals
8%
17.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.06
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
15%
5.86
X/2
16%
5.6
X/X
8%
4.11
2/1
10%
31.5
2/2
14%
3.78
2/X
10%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elche v Celta Vigo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elche EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -22%
1.21/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.31
-11% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -26%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
25.4 Crosses 15.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Elche vs Celta Vigo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elche
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 1.69
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
330 Passes 328
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.04.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-0 HT 0-0 Elche Elche İS1
06.01.2023 Elche Elche 0-1 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
15.05.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-0 HT 1-0 Elche Elche İS1
03.10.2021 Elche Elche 1-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
12.02.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-1 HT 2-0 Elche Elche İS1
06.11.2020 Elche Elche 1-1 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1

Elche 2-1 Celta Vigo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elche
2-1
AWAY Celta Vigo
3.58 xG 0.77
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
523 Passes 298
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Elche vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elche nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Elche found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Elche had 62% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 38%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 3.58 to 0.77 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Elche's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Elche and 1.17 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Elche 2-1 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elche win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Elche 38%, draw 26%, Celta Vigo 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elche), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elche) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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