Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.85
No
44%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.84
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.83
6+ Goals
9%
17.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.71
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
8%
4.55
X/2
11%
7.59
X/X
16%
4.35
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
11%
5.97
2/X
5%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.6pp
44%
BTTS No
50%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.61/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.40
+2% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
26.2 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sevilla
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.44 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
333 Passes 295
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
24.11.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
05.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 1-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
07.10.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 0-2 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
19.02.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
29.10.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0-1
AWAY Sevilla
1.89 xG 0.55
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 4
401 Passes 193
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 15
34 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sevilla edged past Rayo Vallecano 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rayo Vallecano at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 64% of the ball to Sevilla's 36%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.89 to 0.55 — on chances, Rayo Vallecano could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.17 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 42%, draw 30%, Sevilla 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rayo Vallecano), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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