Smorgon 1-0 Neman Grodno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

Smorgon
1-0 HT 1-0
Neman Grodno
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Belarus - Premier League – 2025

Smorgon vs Neman Grodno Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
51%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.54
2-3 Goals
35%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.12
6+ Goals
11%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 35% vs market 31.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
23%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
24%
+2.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
51%
Away Win
51%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.9pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Smorgon v Neman Grodno — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Neman Grodno EU Bookmakers 55%
+17% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +19%
1.17/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/0.84
+4% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +15%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
205 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1

Smorgon vs Neman Grodno Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Neman Grodno
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.05.2025 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 0-1 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
29.06.2024 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 2-1 HT 1-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
01.10.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 1-3 HT 1-2 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno BLR
14.05.2023 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 3-1 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
19.09.2021 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno 5-0 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
07.05.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 0-2 HT 0-0 Neman Grodno Neman Grodno BLR

Smorgon 1-0 Neman Grodno — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
1-0
AWAY Neman Grodno
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Neman Grodno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon squeezed past Neman Grodno 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Neman Grodno at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Smorgon had 46% of the ball to Neman Grodno's 54%, shots finished 12-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neman Grodno led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Smorgon and 2.50 for Neman Grodno.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Neman Grodno?

Smorgon 1-0 Neman Grodno in the Belarus - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Neman Grodno?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neman Grodno win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 26%, draw 23%, Neman Grodno 51%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Neman Grodno) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neman Grodno) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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