Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Jaro v IFK Mariehamn — Team-Based Signals
Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Jaro 2-3 IFK Mariehamn — Actual Match Statistics
IFK Mariehamn squeezed past Jaro 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Jaro at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.
On the day, Jaro had 47% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 53%, shots finished 24-6, expected goals 2.35 to 1.22 — the balance of chances actually favoured Jaro.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jaro had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Jaro and 1.00 for IFK Mariehamn.
What was the final score of Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn?
Jaro 2-3 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn?
Before kick-off our model rated a Jaro win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Jaro 52%, draw 19%, IFK Mariehamn 28%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jaro) went the other way.