Saburtalo 1-1 Gareji — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.33
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
11%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
71%
+0.5pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.6pp
11%
Away Win
10%
+1.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.7pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Gareji EU Bookmakers 12%
-12% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.00/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.24
-14% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +72%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saburtalo
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Gareji
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Gareji Gareji 1-1 HT 0-1 Saburtalo GUR
14.04.2025 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 1-0 Gareji Gareji GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saburtalo
1-1
AWAY Gareji
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 0
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Saburtalo vs Gareji
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo and Gareji shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Saburtalo carried 72% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Saburtalo had 53% of the ball to Gareji's 47%, shots finished 9-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Saburtalo had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Saburtalo and 1.00 for Gareji.

What was the final score of Saburtalo vs Gareji?

Saburtalo 1-1 Gareji in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saburtalo vs Gareji?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Saburtalo 72%, draw 18%, Gareji 11%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✗ BTTS No
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