Heerenveen (K) 1-3 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie, 28 Sep 2025

Heerenveen (K)
1-3 HT 0-2
Excelsior Barendrecht (K)
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Heerenveen (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
16%
4.34
Away
29%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-10.7pp
16%
Draw
20%
-3.9pp
29%
Away Win
15%
+14.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen (K) v Excelsior Barendrecht (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen (K) EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior Barendrecht (K) EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
2.61/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/2.84
+26% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -36%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.0 Crosses 9.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0

Heerenveen (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen (K)
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Excelsior Barendrecht (K)
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
368 Passes 210
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.02.2025 Heerenveen (K) Heerenveen (K) 5-1 HT 3-0 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) Excelsior Barendrecht (K) HOLK1
06.10.2024 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) Excelsior Barendrecht (K) 1-1 HT 0-1 Heerenveen (K) Heerenveen (K) HOLK1
09.03.2024 Heerenveen (K) Heerenveen (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) Excelsior Barendrecht (K) HOLK1

Heerenveen (K) 1-3 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen (K)
1-3
AWAY Excelsior Barendrecht (K)
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
287 Passes 216
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Heerenveen (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior Barendrecht (K) beat Heerenveen (K) 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Heerenveen (K) at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Heerenveen (K) had 56% of the ball to Excelsior Barendrecht (K)'s 44%, shots finished 18-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Heerenveen (K) had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Heerenveen (K) and 0.67 for Excelsior Barendrecht (K).

What was the final score of Heerenveen (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K)?

Heerenveen (K) 1-3 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) in the Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen (K) 55%, draw 16%, Excelsior Barendrecht (K) 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Heerenveen (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen (K)) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOLK1 More Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie
28 Sep 2025
13:15 AZ (K) vs Ajax (K) Analysis →
17:45 Feyenoord (K) vs ADO Den Haag (K) Analysis →
17:45 PEC Zwolle (K) vs Twente (K) Analysis →
17:45 NAC Breda (K) vs Utrecht (K) Analysis →
17:45 PSV Eindhoven (K) vs HERA United (K) Analysis →