Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Tochigi SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.7pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
37%
Away Win
37%
-0.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.19/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/0.40
-8% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
232 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.7 Crosses 17.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Tochigi SC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
395 Passes 183
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
10 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
28.06.2025 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 3-1 HT 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
10.10.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-1 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
23.05.2021 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 3-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
04.11.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
13.09.2020 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 1-1 HT 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
10.08.2014 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 1-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-1
AWAY Tochigi SC
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
268 Passes 192
71% Pass Accuracy 64%
10 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga and Tochigi SC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (31% / 32% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 55% of the ball to Tochigi SC's 45%, shots finished 11-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tochigi SC led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.50 for Tochigi SC.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi SC?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Tochigi SC in the Japan - J3 League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi SC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tochigi SC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 31%, draw 32%, Tochigi SC 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tochigi SC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tochigi SC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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