MTK Budapest 4-0 Kisvarda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 28 Sep 2025

MTK Budapest
4-0 HT 2-0
Kisvarda
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2025/2026

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
8.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+1.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.5pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MTK Budapest v Kisvarda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -9%
1.63/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.52
+2% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
18.0 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Kisvarda
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.15 xG 0.98
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
402 Passes 342
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.04.2024 Kisvarda Kisvarda 3-2 HT 2-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MACK
17.03.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 2-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
25.11.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 3-1 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
11.08.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
19.03.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
27.11.2021 Kisvarda Kisvarda 5-0 HT 2-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC

MTK Budapest 4-0 Kisvarda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
4-0
AWAY Kisvarda
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
248 Passes 470
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest ran out comfortable winners over Kisvarda 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had MTK Budapest as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 38% of the ball to Kisvarda's 62%, shots finished 8-22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kisvarda led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for MTK Budapest and 2.00 for Kisvarda.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda?

MTK Budapest 4-0 Kisvarda in the Hungary - NB I on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 48%, draw 23%, Kisvarda 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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