Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Necaxa v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Necaxa vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Necaxa
MEK
3-0
HT 1-0
Necaxa
MEK
1-3
HT 1-2
Toluca
MEK
0-1
HT 0-1
Toluca
MEK
1-1
HT 0-0
Necaxa
MEK
Necaxa 1-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca beat Necaxa 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Toluca made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.
On the day, Necaxa had 50% of the ball to Toluca's 50%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 1.07 to 1.98.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Necaxa and 1.83 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Necaxa vs Toluca?
Necaxa 1-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 28/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 39%, draw 27%, Toluca 34%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa) went the other way.