FC Juarez 2-4 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Oct 2024

📅28/10/2024 · 🕒03:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.99
2-3 Goals
36%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.99 — our 29% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -17%
1.23/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.69
-5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -32%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 81%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.2 Crosses 19.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 0.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
292 Passes 303
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.04.2024 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-3 HT 2-2 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
26.10.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-2 HT 2-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
14.04.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
04.08.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
21.01.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
22.09.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
2-4
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.56 xG 3.02
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
471 Passes 312
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 27
27 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis beat FC Juarez 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Atletico San Luis made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 59% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 41%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.56 to 3.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Juarez and 1.17 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Atletico San Luis?

FC Juarez 2-4 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 28/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 40%, draw 25%, Atletico San Luis 36%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Juarez), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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