Matagalpa 4-1 Real Esteli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 28 Oct 2024

📅28/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
49%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Esteli EU Bookmakers 56%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.24/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.08
+1% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
254 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matagalpa
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Real Esteli
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
18.08.2024 Real Esteli Real Esteli 1-1 HT 1-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
15.03.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
25.11.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
19.09.2023 Real Esteli Real Esteli 2-1 HT 1-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
24.04.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
05.03.2023 Real Esteli Real Esteli 2-1 HT 2-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
POST-MATCH Matagalpa vs Real Esteli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matagalpa swept aside Real Esteli 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Real Esteli at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Esteli led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Matagalpa and 1.17 for Real Esteli.

What was the final score of Matagalpa vs Real Esteli?

Matagalpa 4-1 Real Esteli in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 28/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matagalpa vs Real Esteli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Esteli win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Matagalpa 24%, draw 26%, Real Esteli 49%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Esteli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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