Triestina 2-1 Pro Patria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Nov 2025

📅28/11/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.48
6+ Goals
8%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 36% vs market 33.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
50%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
21%
Away Win
22%
-0.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.7pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Triestina EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Pro Patria EU Bookmakers 25%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -8%
1.33/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.17
-7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Triestina
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pro Patria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Triestina Triestina 1-0 HT 0-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
03.11.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-0 HT 0-0 Triestina Triestina İTC
04.02.2024 Triestina Triestina 1-2 HT 0-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
24.09.2023 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-3 HT 0-3 Triestina Triestina İTC
12.03.2023 Triestina Triestina 2-0 HT 1-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
06.11.2022 Pro Patria Pro Patria 2-1 HT 2-0 Triestina Triestina İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Triestina
2-1
AWAY Pro Patria
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Triestina vs Pro Patria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Triestina edged past Pro Patria 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Triestina as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Triestina had 56% of the ball to Pro Patria's 44%, shots finished 19-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Triestina had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Triestina and 0.67 for Pro Patria.

What was the final score of Triestina vs Pro Patria?

Triestina 2-1 Pro Patria in the Italy - Serie C on 28/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Triestina vs Pro Patria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Triestina win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Triestina 52%, draw 26%, Pro Patria 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Triestina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Triestina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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