Amed SK 2-1 Esenler Erokspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 28 Nov 2025

📅28/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 30% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.81
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
19%
4.91
X/2
8%
7.44
X/X
11%
4.87
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
13%
5.36
2/X
9%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amed SK EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.56/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.25
+1% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
20.0 Crosses 13.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amed SK
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.92 xG 2.09
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
360 Passes 244
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
01.03.2025 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 1-1 HT 1-1 Amed SK Amed SK T1L
06.10.2024 Amed SK Amed SK 0-4 HT 0-2 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amed SK
2-1
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
2.27 xG 0.91
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
350 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
36 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amed SK vs Esenler Erokspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amed SK squeezed past Esenler Erokspor 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Amed SK as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Amed SK had 57% of the ball to Esenler Erokspor's 43%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.27 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Amed SK's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Esenler Erokspor led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Amed SK and 2.50 for Esenler Erokspor.

What was the final score of Amed SK vs Esenler Erokspor?

Amed SK 2-1 Esenler Erokspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 28/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amed SK vs Esenler Erokspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amed SK win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Amed SK 46%, draw 25%, Esenler Erokspor 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amed SK), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amed SK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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