AVS 1-1 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Dec 2024

AVS
1-1 HT 0-1
Estrela
📅28/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
5.28
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.5
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
17%
4.8
X/2
13%
6.25
X/X
13%
3.54
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
14%
5.09
2/X
5%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
31%
-4.1pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.1pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.15/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.99
-27% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +40%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.0 Crosses 18.1
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
1-1
AWAY Estrela
1.27 xG 2.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
301 Passes 180
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AVS vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS and Estrela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was AVS at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, AVS had 60% of the ball to Estrela's 40%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.27 to 2.20.

What was the final score of AVS vs Estrela?

AVS 1-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split AVS 42%, draw 27%, Estrela 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AVS), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AVS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
28 Dec 2024
21:00 Estoril vs Moreirense Analysis →
23:30 Porto vs Boavista Analysis →