Estoril 2-2 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Dec 2024

📅28/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.51
Over 2.5
47%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
5.15
6+ Goals
10%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.11
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.9
X/1
11%
5.4
X/2
17%
5.48
X/X
9%
3.57
2/1
12%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.21
2/X
8%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
31%
-4.5pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.28/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.94
+19% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +39%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.8 Crosses 17.7
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Moreirense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 1.42
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
415 Passes 231
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
13.01.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-3 HT 0-2 Moreirense Moreirense POR
07.05.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
29.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
28.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
12.02.2018 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
2-2
AWAY Moreirense
2.07 xG 0.81
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
344 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril and Moreirense shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Estoril had 53% of the ball to Moreirense's 47%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.07 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Estoril and 1.33 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Moreirense?

Estoril 2-2 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Estoril 37%, draw 27%, Moreirense 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/27/37) ✗ Under 2.5
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