Porto 4-0 Boavista — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Dec 2024

📅28/12/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.18
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.62
6+ Goals
10%
6.42
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.15 — our 24% vs market 14.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.34
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
31.0
X/1
25%
3.42
X/2
4%
30.5
X/X
8%
9.67
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
4%
24.3
2/X
5%
30.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
80%
-10.6pp
18%
Draw
14%
+3.7pp
13%
Away Win
6%
+6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Boavista EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
2.47/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/2.39
-2% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
426 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 72%
37.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
22.0 Crosses 12.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Boavista
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.24 xG 0.53
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
458 Passes 189
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
40 Box Touches 8
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 5
12.05.2024 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
05.01.2024 Boavista Boavista 1-1 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
30.04.2023 Porto Porto 1-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
12.11.2022 Boavista Boavista 1-4 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
20.03.2022 Boavista Boavista 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
30.10.2021 Porto Porto 4-1 HT 2-1 Boavista Boavista POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
4-0
AWAY Boavista
2.00 xG 0.15
76% Ball Possession 24%
13 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
588 Passes 139
91% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 6
14 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Boavista
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto swept aside Boavista 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Porto had 76% of the ball to Boavista's 24%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 2.00 to 0.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Porto and 0.67 for Boavista.

What was the final score of Porto vs Boavista?

Porto 4-0 Boavista in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Boavista?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Porto 69%, draw 18%, Boavista 13%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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