Alianza Lima 2-1 Cesar Vallejo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 29 Jan 2024

📅29/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.1pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesar Vallejo EU Bookmakers 22%
+9% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.76/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.65
+5% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 73%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
22.4 Crosses 12.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.69 xG 0.81
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
253 Passes 309
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.07.2023 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 1-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
12.05.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 0-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
05.10.2022 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 3-2 HT 1-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
15.05.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
29.08.2021 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
24.04.2021 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-2 HT 0-1 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
2-1
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
1.74 xG 0.71
39% Ball Possession 61%
21 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
214 Passes 406
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 7
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Cesar Vallejo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima edged past Cesar Vallejo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 39% of the ball to Cesar Vallejo's 61%, shots finished 21-3, expected goals 1.74 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alianza Lima and 1.00 for Cesar Vallejo.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Cesar Vallejo?

Alianza Lima 2-1 Cesar Vallejo in the Peru - Premier League on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Cesar Vallejo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 47%, draw 27%, Cesar Vallejo 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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