Lommel United 1-2 Boussu Dour Borinage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 27% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
44%
-10.1pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lommel United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.47/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.34
+2% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 73%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
16.4 Crosses 15.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lommel United
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.69 xG 0.61
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
552 Passes 263
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2024 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage 1-3 HT 0-3 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
10.03.2024 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage 1-2 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
24.09.2023 Lommel United Lommel United 3-0 HT 1-0 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lommel United
1-2
AWAY Boussu Dour Borinage
0.17 xG 1.52
60% Ball Possession 40%
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
469 Passes 289
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lommel United vs Boussu Dour Borinage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boussu Dour Borinage edged past Lommel United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 36%) promised a tight game; Boussu Dour Borinage found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lommel United had 60% of the ball to Boussu Dour Borinage's 40%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 0.17 to 1.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Boussu Dour Borinage's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lommel United had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Lommel United and 0.67 for Boussu Dour Borinage.

What was the final score of Lommel United vs Boussu Dour Borinage?

Lommel United 1-2 Boussu Dour Borinage in the Belgium - 1st Division on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lommel United vs Boussu Dour Borinage?

Before kick-off our model rated an Boussu Dour Borinage win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lommel United 34%, draw 30%, Boussu Dour Borinage 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boussu Dour Borinage) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Boussu Dour Borinage) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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