Treaty United 0-1 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.37
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 27% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Treaty United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +25%
1.89/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.41
+37% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
351 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Treaty United
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Finn Harps
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 2-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
11.08.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
26.05.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 0-3 HT 0-2 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
14.04.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 2-0 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Treaty United
0-1
AWAY Finn Harps
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Treaty United vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps nicked a narrow win over Treaty United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Treaty United at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Treaty United had 47% of the ball to Finn Harps's 53%, shots finished 8-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Treaty United and 1.25 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Treaty United 0-1 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated a Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Treaty United 42%, draw 25%, Finn Harps 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Treaty United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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