Tondela 1-0 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.05
6+ Goals
9%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 30% vs market 28.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+1.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.60/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.11
-16% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.9 Crosses 17.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Vilaverdense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.20 xG 0.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
323 Passes 261
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
12.11.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 1-2 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
1-0
AWAY Vilaverdense
0.87 xG 0.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 10
254 Passes 260
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela nicked a narrow win over Vilaverdense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tondela had 49% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 51%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 0.87 to 0.73.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Vilaverdense?

Tondela 1-0 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tondela 49%, draw 27%, Vilaverdense 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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