Chesham United 4-1 Welling United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.9
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.72
6+ Goals
8%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 30% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesham United EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Welling United EU Bookmakers 32%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -15%
1.00/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.54
-34% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesham United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Welling United
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Welling United Welling United 1-3 HT 0-1 Chesham United Chesham United İCON
POST-MATCH Chesham United vs Welling United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United swept aside Welling United 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Chesham United made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Chesham United vs Welling United?

Chesham United 4-1 Welling United in the England - Conference on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Welling United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 40%, draw 28%, Welling United 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesham United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chesham United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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