Welling United 1-3 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.0
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.9pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welling United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.35/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.00
-5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +39%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welling United
1-3
AWAY Chesham United
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 12
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Welling United vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United saw off Welling United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Chesham United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Welling United had 48% of the ball to Chesham United's 52%, shots finished 5-18.

What was the final score of Welling United vs Chesham United?

Welling United 1-3 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welling United vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Welling United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Welling United 39%, draw 26%, Chesham United 35%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Welling United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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