Alfreton Town 2-1 Farsley AFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.19
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.69
6+ Goals
8%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 32% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Farsley AFC EU Bookmakers 25%
+11% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.74/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.72
-2% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Farsley AFC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 2-3 HT 1-2 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
28.10.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC İCON
07.01.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC İCON
13.08.2022 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
12.03.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC İCON
25.09.2021 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 0-3 HT 0-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
2-1
AWAY Farsley AFC
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Farsley AFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town nicked a narrow win over Farsley AFC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alfreton Town as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 64% of the ball to Farsley AFC's 36%, shots finished 9-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Alfreton Town and 0.33 for Farsley AFC.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Farsley AFC?

Alfreton Town 2-1 Farsley AFC in the England - Conference on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Farsley AFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 48%, draw 28%, Farsley AFC 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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