Paderborn 1-2 Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 29 Mar 2025

Paderborn
1-2 HT 1-1
Köln
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Paderborn vs Köln Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.81
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
15%
4.88
X/2
11%
7.35
X/X
11%
5.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.2
2/2
16%
5.28
2/X
7%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.2 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-7.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Köln — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -21%
2.05/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.51
+5% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -96% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
379 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
20.9 Crosses 23.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Paderborn vs Köln Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Köln
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.74 xG 2.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
330 Passes 305
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.10.2024 Köln Köln 1-2 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
06.03.2020 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 0-2 Köln Köln AL1
20.10.2019 Köln Köln 3-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
15.02.2019 Paderborn Paderborn 3-2 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL2
16.09.2018 Köln Köln 3-5 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
07.02.2015 Köln Köln 0-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1

Paderborn 1-2 Köln — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
1-2
AWAY Köln
3.44 xG 2.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
23 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
298 Passes 352
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 26
38 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Köln nicked a narrow win over Paderborn 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Köln found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Paderborn had 49% of the ball to Köln's 51%, shots finished 23-18, expected goals 3.44 to 2.35 — on chances, Paderborn could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Paderborn and 1.83 for Köln.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Köln?

Paderborn 1-2 Köln in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 39%, draw 28%, Köln 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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