Energie Cottbus 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
9.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.53
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
21%
4.77
X/2
10%
8.13
X/X
7%
5.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.9
2/2
11%
5.74
2/X
6%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.9 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+0.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Energie Cottbus EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
2.99/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.86
+75% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
373 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.9 Crosses 18.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Energie Cottbus
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
46% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
22.10.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 HT 1-1 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL3
02.03.2016 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
18.09.2015 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 1-0 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL3
21.02.2014 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 2-3 HT 0-3 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
23.08.2013 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL2
14.12.2012 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-0 HT 1-0 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Energie Cottbus
1-0
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
374 Passes 364
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Energie Cottbus vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Energie Cottbus squeezed past Erzgebirge Aue 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Energie Cottbus as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Energie Cottbus had 51% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 49%, shots finished 16-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.67 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Energie Cottbus vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Energie Cottbus 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Energie Cottbus vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Energie Cottbus win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Energie Cottbus 50%, draw 22%, Erzgebirge Aue 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Energie Cottbus) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Energie Cottbus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
29 Mar 2025
16:00 Waldhof Mannheim vs Borussia Dortmund II Analysis →
16:00 Hansa Rostock vs Saarbrücken Analysis →
16:00 Unterhaching vs Alemannia Aachen Analysis →
16:00 Osnabrück vs 1860 München Analysis →
18:30 Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 II Analysis →